Modeling

Tag: Modeling

Map showing a marine heat wave known as "the blob" which spread across the northeastern Pacific Ocean from 2014 to 2016. Image: Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory, Data: Coral Reef Watch

Modeling “the blob” in the Salish Sea

In late 2013, a marine heatwave that scientists dubbed “the blob” began warming the ocean throughout the Northeast Pacific, causing temperatures to rise almost 3°C above normal. The disruption severely depressed salmon returns. Whales, sea lions and seabirds starved, and warm water creatures were suddenly being spotted off the coast of Alaska. In Puget Sound, temperatures also jumped, but the effects of the blob here proved difficult to study because of the natural variability of the Salish Sea and the heavy influence of freshwater mixing and circulation in the waterbody. Recently, computer simulations from our partners at the Salish Sea Modeling Center have begun to help scientists understand some of the complexities.
A new paper in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science analyzes results of a five-year simulation of the Salish Sea Model to assess the blob’s effects. Among its more surprising findings, the model shows that increased inflow of freshwater and nutrients from rivers and creeks was “the primary driver of increased biological activity” such as algal blooms in Puget Sound during the heatwave. The authors say that is counter to earlier assumptions that river flows were unrelated and warmer water generated by the heatwave alone was responsible. They now hope the paper will prompt further studies. Were these higher-than-normal freshwater inflows merely a coincidence? Or do they indicate the influence of heatwave impact on hydrological processes? PSI affiliate and collaborator Tarang Khangaonkar is the paper’s lead author.
Khangaonkar, T., Nugraha, A., Yun, S. K., Premathilake, L., Keister, J. E., & Bos, J. (2021). Propagation of the 2014–2016 Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave through the Salish Sea. Frontiers in Marine Science, 1836.

Map showing a marine heat wave known as "the blob" which spread across the northeastern Pacific Ocean from 2014 to 2016. Image: Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory, Data: Coral Reef Watch

Modeling “the blob” in the Salish Sea

In late 2013, a marine heatwave that scientists dubbed “the blob” began warming the ocean throughout the Northeast Pacific, causing temperatures to rise almost 3°C above normal. The disruption severely depressed salmon returns. Whales, sea lions and seabirds starved, and warm water creatures were suddenly being spotted off the coast of Alaska. In Puget Sound, temperatures also jumped, but the effects of the blob here proved difficult to study because of the natural variability of the Salish Sea and the heavy influence of freshwater mixing and circulation in the waterbody. Recently, computer simulations from our partners at the Salish Sea Modeling Center have begun to help scientists understand some of the complexities.
A new paper in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science analyzes results of a five-year simulation of the Salish Sea Model to assess the blob’s effects. Among its more surprising findings, the model shows that increased inflow of freshwater and nutrients from rivers and creeks was “the primary driver of increased biological activity” such as algal blooms in Puget Sound during the heatwave. The authors say that is counter to earlier assumptions that river flows were unrelated and warmer water generated by the heatwave alone was responsible. They now hope the paper will prompt further studies. Were these higher-than-normal freshwater inflows merely a coincidence? Or do they indicate the influence of heatwave impact on hydrological processes? PSI affiliate and collaborator Tarang Khangaonkar is the paper’s lead author.
Khangaonkar, T., Nugraha, A., Yun, S. K., Premathilake, L., Keister, J. E., & Bos, J. (2021). Propagation of the 2014–2016 Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave through the Salish Sea. Frontiers in Marine Science, 1836.

Introducing DORA Explorer

Whether on land or in the sea, oxygen is critical for sustaining life. Healthy ecosystems depend on it, and the amount of dissolved oxygen in marine environments is one of the ways that scientists measure water quality. Both the research community and the regulatory authorities rely on complex computer models of the Salish Sea to predict dissolved oxygen levels, and key mechanistic drivers of water quality change, such as Nitrogen (N), and Net Primary Production (NPP). Now, the University of Washington Puget Sound Institute and the Salish Sea Modeling Center are developing a new tool for exploring ways to interpret and understand the massive amount of information generated by the state-of-the-science Salish Sea Model. DORA, the Dissolved Oxygen Regional Assessment Explorer, will soon be available to the general public, students, researchers, and stakeholders who wish to explore the impact of human activity on water quality in the Salish Sea.
Images of the DORA prototype are shown below as well as a video presentation describing the pre-release version in more detail.
Examples from the DORA Explorer prototype.

A pre-release presentation of DORA was provided on Wednesday, October 6th at 12 noon (PST) via Zoom. A recording of the presentation is available below.
 


 
Future opportunities: If you are not already registered and wish to contribute to future development, suggested function, or beta testing of products, please email Stefano Mazzilli (mazzilli at uw.edu) or Su Kyong Yun (sukong at uw.edu).
Funding: US EPA grant (cooperative agreement with the Puget Sound Partnership)
Presenters: Su Kyong Yun and Stefano Mazzilli
Acknowledgments: Adi Nugraha, Andy James, Joel Baker, and Tarang Khangaonkar

Introducing DORA Explorer

Whether on land or in the sea, oxygen is critical for sustaining life. Healthy ecosystems depend on it, and the amount of dissolved oxygen in marine environments is one of the ways that scientists measure water quality. Both the research community and the regulatory authorities rely on complex computer models of the Salish Sea to predict dissolved oxygen levels, and key mechanistic drivers of water quality change, such as Nitrogen (N), and Net Primary Production (NPP). Now, the University of Washington Puget Sound Institute and the Salish Sea Modeling Center are developing a new tool for exploring ways to interpret and understand the massive amount of information generated by the state-of-the-science Salish Sea Model. DORA, the Dissolved Oxygen Regional Assessment Explorer, will soon be available to the general public, students, researchers, and stakeholders who wish to explore the impact of human activity on water quality in the Salish Sea.
Images of the DORA prototype are shown below as well as a video presentation describing the pre-release version in more detail.
Examples from the DORA Explorer prototype.

A pre-release presentation of DORA was provided on Wednesday, October 6th at 12 noon (PST) via Zoom. A recording of the presentation is available below.
 


 
Future opportunities: If you are not already registered and wish to contribute to future development, suggested function, or beta testing of products, please email Stefano Mazzilli (mazzilli at uw.edu) or Su Kyong Yun (sukong at uw.edu).
Funding: US EPA grant (cooperative agreement with the Puget Sound Partnership)
Presenters: Su Kyong Yun and Stefano Mazzilli
Acknowledgments: Adi Nugraha, Andy James, Joel Baker, and Tarang Khangaonkar

PSI is hiring for a new postdoc position

PSI is seeking a postdoctoral research scientist to focus on modeling the connections between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in Puget Sound. The full job announcement is available below.
University of Washington Postdoctoral Research Scientist Modeling Terrestrial-Aquatic Linkages in Puget Sound
The Puget Sound Institute, a University of Washington research center located in Tacoma (www.pugetsoundinstitute.org), is seeking a postdoctoral research scientist who focuses on modeling the connections between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, especially how the built environment controls the movement of water, nutrients, and chemical contaminants into adjacent surface waters.  This position will contribute to our collaborative group by conducting qualitative or quantitative analysis of the connections between land use, stormwater quantity and quality, and the resulting ecological, social and economic endpoints.  Regional-scale strategies currently being developed to protect and restore critical Puget Sound habitats and ecosystem functions depend on such modeling tools to design smart land use and water management policies for Puget Sound.
The successful candidate will hold a doctoral degree in fisheries biology, oceanography, ecology, environmental science/engineering or a related field and will have demonstrated clever and impactful approaches to relating human activities on the landscape to impacts in estuaries.  We are especially interested in candidates whose work considers the social and economic benefits and costs of both watershed development and the resulting strategies to mitigate impacts on adjacent waters.
Specific opportunities and approaches include:

  • Evaluating the linkages between stormwater treatment and social, economic, and ecological endpoints in Puget Sound using qualitative modeling techniques, which could include Bayesian network models, fuzzy logic, quantitative network models (e., “loop analysis”), or other approaches.
  • Developing relatively simple qualitative tools to inform, support, and guide the development of more complex quantitative models that address policy options, including stormwater management options in the Puget Sound region.
  • Coordinating with multiple stakeholders and collaborators to define objectives and research questions, to refine conceptual models, to devise management scenarios, and to interpret and communicate results.
  • Publishing and presenting modeling approaches and results and engaging with other regional, national and international experts.

This is a full-time position for at least one and up to three years, depending on funding, beginning in the first quarter of 2019.  The successful candidate will be based at the UW Tacoma Center for Urban Waters, will travel regionally to meet with collaborators, and may be eligible work remotely.  Interested candidates should provide a short statement of interest, a curriculum vitae, one or more recent publications, and the names of three professional references via e-mail to Joel Baker (jebaker@uw.edu) and apply through the UW Hires portal (https://uwhires.admin.washington.edu/ENG/) Requisition #165198.
The University of Washington is an equal opportunity, affirmative action employer. To request disability accommodation in the application process, contact the Disability Services Office at 206-543-6450 / 206-543-6452 (tty) or dso@uw.edu.

PSI senior research scientist Marc Mangel.

Marc Mangel joins PSI

By Jeff Rice

How many fish are in the Salish Sea? It’s an impossible question that drives the Puget Sound Institute’s newest senior scientist Marc Mangel. 

Mangel has spent his career working on fish and fisheries issues and uses mathematical models to answer critical questions about species such as their population numbers and population health. He joins PSI this month as an affiliate professor at the University of Washington Tacoma where he will focus on a range of subjects related to species such as salmon and forage fish.

Mangel comes to PSI from the University of California, Santa Cruz where he is a Distinguished Research Professor of Mathematical Biology. For the past 30 years, he has been a leader in ocean conservation and his research has been cited by fisheries managers worldwide. He currently serves as chair of the board of directors at Fishwise and is a member of the review board of the Pacific Halibut Commission. In 2014, Mangel was a principle scientific expert in a successful lawsuit by the Australian government to stop Japanese whaling in the Antarctic. This spring, he was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

One of the challenges when studying the ocean — and fish in particular, Mangel says — is getting enough good field data. “We barely know how many fish we take out,” he says of fisheries catch reports and other sources. Numbers for actual fish populations are even more complicated, requiring more opaque ecological studies and plenty of math. In Puget Sound, for example, Mangel has been working with biologists on Protection Island to enlist “seabirds as samplers” as part of a long-term study counting the numbers of forage fish consumed as prey by birds such as rhinoceros auklets. “Based on that, we can infer the abundance of prey species,” he says. Other collaborations include ongoing studies of steelhead numbers with scientists at the Manchester Environmental Laboratory in Manchester, Washington.

Mangel has been a regular contributor to PSI as a visiting scholar since 2013 when he co-chaired PSI’s Forage Fish Study Group, with PSI Lead Ecosystem Ecologist Tessa Francis. The study group produced a set of research and management recommendations for Puget Sound’s forage fish species, including Pacific herring. Last year, Mangel and Francis were co-authors on a paper, led by University of Bergen student Gabriella Ljungström, investigating the tradeoffs faced by migrating herring between feeding, survival, and reproduction, using Puget Sound as a case study (Ljungström et al. 2018).

Read a Q & A with Marc Mangel


Other related articles:

Read a Q&A with Marc Mangel

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Related posts about Marc Mangel

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How herring learn from their elders

Young Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) learn migration behavior by joining up with older fish, according to a new paper co-authored by Puget Sound Institute Lead Ecosystem Ecologist Tessa Francis. The paper, published this month in the ICES Journal of Marine Science, showed how this behavior leads to greater spatial variability in biomass, and that commercial fishing could disproportionately affect some herring populations.
Citation:
Alec D MacCall, Tessa B Francis, André E Punt, Margaret C Siple, Derek R Armitage, Jaclyn S Cleary, Sherri C Dressel, R Russ Jones, Harvey Kitka, Lynn C Lee, Phillip S Levin, Jim McIsaac, Daniel K Okamoto, Melissa Poe, Steve Reifenstuhl, Jörn O Schmidt, Andrew O Shelton, Jennifer J Silver, Thomas F Thornton, Rudi Voss, John Woodruff, Handling editor: Ken Andersen. (2018). A heuristic model of socially learned migration behaviour exhibits distinctive spatial and reproductive dynamics. ICES Journal of Marine Science. fsy091. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsy091
View the abstract. 

How herring learn from their elders

Young Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) learn migration behavior by joining up with older fish, according to a new paper co-authored by Puget Sound Institute Lead Ecosystem Ecologist Tessa Francis. The paper, published this month in the ICES Journal of Marine Science, showed how this behavior leads to greater spatial variability in biomass, and that commercial fishing could disproportionately affect some herring populations.
Citation:
Alec D MacCall, Tessa B Francis, André E Punt, Margaret C Siple, Derek R Armitage, Jaclyn S Cleary, Sherri C Dressel, R Russ Jones, Harvey Kitka, Lynn C Lee, Phillip S Levin, Jim McIsaac, Daniel K Okamoto, Melissa Poe, Steve Reifenstuhl, Jörn O Schmidt, Andrew O Shelton, Jennifer J Silver, Thomas F Thornton, Rudi Voss, John Woodruff, Handling editor: Ken Andersen. (2018). A heuristic model of socially learned migration behaviour exhibits distinctive spatial and reproductive dynamics. ICES Journal of Marine Science. fsy091. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsy091
View the abstract. 

PSI will host a wide variety of sessions and panels at the 2018 Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference logo
Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference logo

The announcements are in and Puget Sound Institute researchers will be chairing or co-chairing at least five different special sessions at next year’s Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference in Seattle. The sessions will include subjects as varied as Contaminants of Emerging Concern, microplastics, Pacific herring, ecosystem modeling and the potential influence of the region’s technology industry on Salish Sea recovery. Watch this space in the coming months for more details on these sessions and for in-depth coverage of the conference as it develops.
 

PSI will host a wide variety of sessions and panels at the 2018 Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference logo
Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference logo

The announcements are in and Puget Sound Institute researchers will be chairing or co-chairing at least five different special sessions at next year’s Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference in Seattle. The sessions will include subjects as varied as Contaminants of Emerging Concern, microplastics, Pacific herring, ecosystem modeling and the potential influence of the region’s technology industry on Salish Sea recovery. Watch this space in the coming months for more details on these sessions and for in-depth coverage of the conference as it develops.