Pacific Fishery Management Council

Tag: Pacific Fishery Management Council

A look at future ocean conditions and how they could affect coastal communities

Scientists tell us that climate change is probably increasing the frequency of extreme events, such as hurricanes, droughts and wildfires. As time goes on, we might expect even more dramatic shifts in the ecosystem, as some species move to more suitable locations and others die out.
The Pacific Fishery Management Council, which oversees fishing along the West Coast, has launched an effort to become more nimble and responsive to changing conditions with regard to estimating fish populations and approving sport and commercial fisheries.

The future of West Coast fish stocks could be determined by human decisions. // Image: Center for Environmental Visualization and Robert Francis, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington

One effort is to describe how the ecosystem could change over the next 20 years and how those changes could affect coastal communities dependent on fishing. A new document titled “Scenarios for West Coast Fisheries – 2040” (PDF 1.4 mb) was recently released in draft form and will be the subject of discussions during next week’s meeting of the fishery council.
“The general idea of scenario planning is to develop descriptions of alternative plausible futures,” said Kit Dahl, staff officer who is leading the effort for the fishery council. “It’s not a prediction per se but a way of describing what we know with imagination as we look to what the future might hold.”
As Kit explained it, four scenarios were developed to represent the full range of future conditions that might be experienced. More than 80 experts participated in a series of six workshops during May and June to scope out the scenarios, based upon two fundamental uncertainties:

  1. Will the effects of climate change — including temperature and ocean acidification — come on gradually with infrequent surprises, or will we see extreme variability with ecological upheavals and uncertain weather conditions?
  2. Will ecological changes result in an increase or a decrease in fish stocks commonly harvested along the West Coast?

The four separate scenarios were developed and given interesting names. The discussion in the report, which includes future prospects for marine mammals, fish stocks and human communities, opened my eyes to a number of possibilities. Here’s just a sampling from the four scenarios:
Fortune and Favor: Gradual changes, good fish stocks
Under this most-favorable scenario, climate change is not as extreme as predicted in 2020. Fish stocks are gradually moving north to maintain favorable temperatures.
As the U.S. comes out of the COVID-19 pandemic, cyber conflicts grow more intense. The fishing industry becomes less international with broad-scale efforts to promote domestically produced seafood.
A younger generation takes a long-term, ecosystem-based perspective that includes removing dams, restoring wetlands and recovering endangered species. Serious efforts to reduce greenhouse gases began in the 2030s. By 2040, the U.S. economy is on a firm path to a carbon-free future.
Coastal communities re-embrace fishing identities, as community-based fishing, processing and marketing takes hold with new technologies. Changing attitudes and advanced technologies, such as carbon-neutral propulsion, leads to a rebirth in sport fishing.
An ecosystem-based approach constrains catch for individual fisheries, which frustrates fishermen, but the overall catch increases. Technological innovations and institutional changes offer hope for solutions.
A Blue Revolution: Gradual change, but fish decline
A warming climate and ocean causes familiar fish stocks to decline, but subtropical and tropical fish find favorable conditions along the West Coast. A more open, global economy seeks inexpensive ways to supply protein, and wild-caught fish struggle under the pressure.
Throughout the 2030s, public sentiment has increased to address carbon emissions, leading to offshore energy supplies based on wind, currents and thermal properties of ocean water. Public values move away from animal protein to seafood and plant-based proteins.
Aquaculture puts competitive pressure on large-scale commercial fisheries, but coastal communities maintain some of their character with the help of federal investments in infrastructure — including rural broadband that supports remote office work. Recreational fishing sees a resurgence but with lower catch limits.
Increasing aquaculture creates conflicts with the commercial fishing industry, and fishery management councils take on new roles in regulating offshore aquaculture.
Harmful algal blooms increase in frequency; the ecosystem becomes less productive; and marine mammal populations decline. While wild salmon have less pressure from predators, lower ocean productivity reduces their numbers. Improved hatchery practices allow for continued salmon production.
Box of Chocolates: High climate variability, good fish stocks
In this scenario, we view “a world of environmental surprises and extremes, but where stock levels increase on average” with fishermen seeing “regular boom-and-bust cycles for some key stocks.”
Species rarely seen in the Northern Hemisphere show up suddenly, allowing for harvestable levels of unusual fish. New technology becomes the key to keeping up with less predictable conditions and allowing the exploitation of available fish. Seafood marketing becomes more difficult due to the high variability in seafood supplies, but consumers seek wild-caught fish for health and emotional reasons.
In some areas, salmon fishing may be good at times, but sport fishermen cannot depend on catching fish at their old reliable fishing spots.
Snowpack melts early except in the highest elevations. California enters a prolonged period of drought, which contributes to the extinction of many wild salmon stocks.
Dams on the Klamath and Snake rivers are removed, improving prospects for wild stocks. Widespread development of alternative energy supplies continues to fuel the debate about removing dams on the mainstem of the Columbia River, but the need for water storage blunts the argument as droughts become more frequent.
Hollowed Out: High climate variability, and fish decline
Unpredictable and extreme shifts in ocean conditions upsets the traditional food web along the West Coast. Only a few stocks of fish remain at harvestable levels, and commercial fisheries practically disappear except for highly specialized commodity fisheries and part-time operations. Wild-caught fish have become a high-priced delicacy.
Recreational fishing exists but continues on its long decline. Some rural fishing communities are abandoned. Others become focused on shipping, tourism or urban waterfront homes. Because of persistent, damaging storms, waterfront communities are fortified against unprecedented waves.
Economic downturns, climate change and marine pollution become more worrisome around the globe. In many ways, the market for seafood never recovers from the economic shocks of the 2020s. People worry about species extinction and ecosystem services, putting more emphasis on protecting species and producing alternative protein sources like algae, hemp and laboratory-grown “meat.”
Even aquaculture struggles to survive, as coastal areas are seen as too polluted to produce healthy foods, and struggling facilities are battered by high winds and waves. Some land-based, closed-system aquaculture facilities provide fish to a high-end market.
Salmon are devastated by the conditions. Even with a decline in marine mammals, the combination of poor freshwater conditions and poor ocean productivity have driven many salmon stocks to extinction, while others struggle to survive.
Next steps
While these scenarios can help us visualize four different options for the future, it is important to understand that the visualizations are only as good as the assumptions that go into them. We are dealing with a multitude of both natural functions and human actions, some of which can literally change the ecosystem as well as the society in which we live.
Some things are beyond human control, but a first step toward achieving a desirable future is understanding what we can control. After that, we can go about taking actions to set the stage for the world in which our great-great-grandchildren will live.
Anyone interested in these scenarios may submit comments to the Pacific Fishery Management Council. The next step will be to identify specific challenges to particular communities, regions and people involved in the fishing industry. From those discussions will come proposed actions that could help people prepare for a better future.

A look at future ocean conditions and how they could affect coastal communities

Scientists tell us that climate change is probably increasing the frequency of extreme events, such as hurricanes, droughts and wildfires. As time goes on, we might expect even more dramatic shifts in the ecosystem, as some species move to more suitable locations and others die out.
The Pacific Fishery Management Council, which oversees fishing along the West Coast, has launched an effort to become more nimble and responsive to changing conditions with regard to estimating fish populations and approving sport and commercial fisheries.

The future of West Coast fish stocks could be determined by human decisions. // Image: Center for Environmental Visualization and Robert Francis, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington

One effort is to describe how the ecosystem could change over the next 20 years and how those changes could affect coastal communities dependent on fishing. A new document titled “Scenarios for West Coast Fisheries – 2040” (PDF 1.4 mb) was recently released in draft form and will be the subject of discussions during next week’s meeting of the fishery council.
“The general idea of scenario planning is to develop descriptions of alternative plausible futures,” said Kit Dahl, staff officer who is leading the effort for the fishery council. “It’s not a prediction per se but a way of describing what we know with imagination as we look to what the future might hold.”
As Kit explained it, four scenarios were developed to represent the full range of future conditions that might be experienced. More than 80 experts participated in a series of six workshops during May and June to scope out the scenarios, based upon two fundamental uncertainties:

  1. Will the effects of climate change — including temperature and ocean acidification — come on gradually with infrequent surprises, or will we see extreme variability with ecological upheavals and uncertain weather conditions?
  2. Will ecological changes result in an increase or a decrease in fish stocks commonly harvested along the West Coast?

The four separate scenarios were developed and given interesting names. The discussion in the report, which includes future prospects for marine mammals, fish stocks and human communities, opened my eyes to a number of possibilities. Here’s just a sampling from the four scenarios:
Fortune and Favor: Gradual changes, good fish stocks
Under this most-favorable scenario, climate change is not as extreme as predicted in 2020. Fish stocks are gradually moving north to maintain favorable temperatures.
As the U.S. comes out of the COVID-19 pandemic, cyber conflicts grow more intense. The fishing industry becomes less international with broad-scale efforts to promote domestically produced seafood.
A younger generation takes a long-term, ecosystem-based perspective that includes removing dams, restoring wetlands and recovering endangered species. Serious efforts to reduce greenhouse gases began in the 2030s. By 2040, the U.S. economy is on a firm path to a carbon-free future.
Coastal communities re-embrace fishing identities, as community-based fishing, processing and marketing takes hold with new technologies. Changing attitudes and advanced technologies, such as carbon-neutral propulsion, leads to a rebirth in sport fishing.
An ecosystem-based approach constrains catch for individual fisheries, which frustrates fishermen, but the overall catch increases. Technological innovations and institutional changes offer hope for solutions.
A Blue Revolution: Gradual change, but fish decline
A warming climate and ocean causes familiar fish stocks to decline, but subtropical and tropical fish find favorable conditions along the West Coast. A more open, global economy seeks inexpensive ways to supply protein, and wild-caught fish struggle under the pressure.
Throughout the 2030s, public sentiment has increased to address carbon emissions, leading to offshore energy supplies based on wind, currents and thermal properties of ocean water. Public values move away from animal protein to seafood and plant-based proteins.
Aquaculture puts competitive pressure on large-scale commercial fisheries, but coastal communities maintain some of their character with the help of federal investments in infrastructure — including rural broadband that supports remote office work. Recreational fishing sees a resurgence but with lower catch limits.
Increasing aquaculture creates conflicts with the commercial fishing industry, and fishery management councils take on new roles in regulating offshore aquaculture.
Harmful algal blooms increase in frequency; the ecosystem becomes less productive; and marine mammal populations decline. While wild salmon have less pressure from predators, lower ocean productivity reduces their numbers. Improved hatchery practices allow for continued salmon production.
Box of Chocolates: High climate variability, good fish stocks
In this scenario, we view “a world of environmental surprises and extremes, but where stock levels increase on average” with fishermen seeing “regular boom-and-bust cycles for some key stocks.”
Species rarely seen in the Northern Hemisphere show up suddenly, allowing for harvestable levels of unusual fish. New technology becomes the key to keeping up with less predictable conditions and allowing the exploitation of available fish. Seafood marketing becomes more difficult due to the high variability in seafood supplies, but consumers seek wild-caught fish for health and emotional reasons.
In some areas, salmon fishing may be good at times, but sport fishermen cannot depend on catching fish at their old reliable fishing spots.
Snowpack melts early except in the highest elevations. California enters a prolonged period of drought, which contributes to the extinction of many wild salmon stocks.
Dams on the Klamath and Snake rivers are removed, improving prospects for wild stocks. Widespread development of alternative energy supplies continues to fuel the debate about removing dams on the mainstem of the Columbia River, but the need for water storage blunts the argument as droughts become more frequent.
Hollowed Out: High climate variability, and fish decline
Unpredictable and extreme shifts in ocean conditions upsets the traditional food web along the West Coast. Only a few stocks of fish remain at harvestable levels, and commercial fisheries practically disappear except for highly specialized commodity fisheries and part-time operations. Wild-caught fish have become a high-priced delicacy.
Recreational fishing exists but continues on its long decline. Some rural fishing communities are abandoned. Others become focused on shipping, tourism or urban waterfront homes. Because of persistent, damaging storms, waterfront communities are fortified against unprecedented waves.
Economic downturns, climate change and marine pollution become more worrisome around the globe. In many ways, the market for seafood never recovers from the economic shocks of the 2020s. People worry about species extinction and ecosystem services, putting more emphasis on protecting species and producing alternative protein sources like algae, hemp and laboratory-grown “meat.”
Even aquaculture struggles to survive, as coastal areas are seen as too polluted to produce healthy foods, and struggling facilities are battered by high winds and waves. Some land-based, closed-system aquaculture facilities provide fish to a high-end market.
Salmon are devastated by the conditions. Even with a decline in marine mammals, the combination of poor freshwater conditions and poor ocean productivity have driven many salmon stocks to extinction, while others struggle to survive.
Next steps
While these scenarios can help us visualize four different options for the future, it is important to understand that the visualizations are only as good as the assumptions that go into them. We are dealing with a multitude of both natural functions and human actions, some of which can literally change the ecosystem as well as the society in which we live.
Some things are beyond human control, but a first step toward achieving a desirable future is understanding what we can control. After that, we can go about taking actions to set the stage for the world in which our great-great-grandchildren will live.
Anyone interested in these scenarios may submit comments to the Pacific Fishery Management Council. The next step will be to identify specific challenges to particular communities, regions and people involved in the fishing industry. From those discussions will come proposed actions that could help people prepare for a better future.

Harvest managers setting this year’s salmon seasons struggle to find ways to help orcas

As state, tribal and federal salmon managers work together to establish this year’s fishing seasons, they have not forgotten about the needs of Puget Sound’s endangered killer whales.
In fact, new documents related to the southern resident orcas describe an investigation looking to find ways to reduce fisheries at certain times and locations that might get the whales more food. And yet it appears that nobody has figured out a way to help the whales by reducing salmon fishing.

Photo: James Mead Maya, Maya’s Legacy Whale Watch / mayasimages.com

Annual negotiations to establish seasons and quotas for commercial, tribal and sport fishing are now underway in what is called North of Falcon process, so named because it involves fisheries north of Cape Falcon in Oregon.
The killer whales are on everyone’s mind “in every step throughout the North of Falcon process,” said Carrie McCausland, spokesperson for the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. The salmon managers are fully aware that NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service will scrutinize fishing proposals to protect threatened and endangered species, including the whales, she added.
This year, the managers have a new “risk assessment” report (PDF 3.4 mb) that analyzes how fisheries may be reducing the number of salmon available to the whales along the coast and in Puget Sound. The report, considered part of interagency “consultation” under the Endangered Species Act, focuses mostly on Chinook salmon — the primary prey of the southern residents.
The analysis, conducted by 20 experts (mostly fisheries biologists), examined statistical relationships between the abundance of salmon at certain times and in general locations and how that corresponds to the well-being of the whales, as measured by their survival, birth rates and body fitness.
The statistical analysis is complex, but the overall picture came out as expected: When salmon are more plentiful over all, survival and birth rates tended to increase, with some lag time factored in. But when salmon were less plentiful, fitness of the animals declined, as measured by the observation of “peanut head,” which is caused by a loss of blubber near the blowhole.

Determining the effect of fisheries on the whales is a more complex problem, especially considering that fishing has had less influence on the survival of salmon in recent years, as fishing seasons have been reduced to protect Chinook, listed as a threatened species.
“The whales are declining even in recent years when total salmon abundance has been at or above medium term average … and similar to abundances during periods when southern resident killer whales were increasing or stable over the 1992-2016 period examined,” the report says.
One reason could be that factors beyond salmon abundance may be playing a greater role in orca survival, birth rate and fitness than in the past, states the report. Such factors could include contaminants in the food web, noise around vessels, ship strikes, disease, competition from other marine mammals, inbreeding, more males being born, and behavioral changes.
While it would be reasonable to assume that a higher abundance of salmon in specific areas at specific times could improve the outlook for the whales, the statistical analysis found no specific areas or seasons associated with improved survival, birth rate or body condition, according to the report.
The analysis, presented to the Pacific Fishery Management Council, is expected to be followed up by a new round of discussions and specific recommendations from the experts.

In responding to the report, some environmental groups argued that, given the acknowledged uncertainties, it is not enough to maintain current fisheries management based on an inability to find a statistical relationship between fishing and orca well-being.
“In light of declining southern resident killer whale population and concerns about SRKW genetic diversity, a precautionary approach would require evidence that the status quo is not harming SRKWs, rather than requiring a high degree of confidence in the precise assessment of harvest’s effect on SRKW demographics,” states a letter signed by Nick Gayeski and Josh Rosenau of Wild Fish Conservancy (PDF 694 kb).
Gayeski and Rosenau call for more analysis on the abundance, size and age structure of Chinook salmon wherever the fish go — including areas beyond those managed by the Pacific Fishery Management Council, including Canada and Alaska.
“As the authors observe, SRKW are not only Chinook specialists, they are specialists on large Chinook…,” they wrote. “SRKW evolved in a context where Chinook weighing over 100 pounds were commonplace in the Columbia River, Elwha River and other major Chinook rivers of origin.
“It is not hard to see that it would take many times more energy and time to catch 100 pounds of 10- to 20-pound salmon than it would have taken to feed on a single 100-pound salmon then,” their letter continues. “Nor is it hard to envision the effects on SRKWs complex social structure when so much time must be taken away from social interaction simply to maintain caloric intake.

“It would hardly be surprising to find that this decrease in social interaction makes it harder to maintain pregnancies and sustain newborn orcas. The status quo of harvest management has driven this decline in Chinook sizes, and harvest management will be key to restoring SRKW prey quality, as well as quantity.”
They call for salmon management plans to include a threshold for Chinook abundance below which fishing for Chinook would cease.
Wild Fish Conservancy is preparing to sue the National Marine Fisheries Service for allegedly allowing the overharvesting of Chinook in the Southeast Alaska troll fishery, which catches Chinook that originate in areas to the south where the orcas feed. See WFC news release.
Meanwhile, it isn’t clear how the fisheries managers will use the report as they set salmon seasons, but the annual “guidance letter” (PDF 1.3 mb) from the National Marine Fisheries Service calls on them to take extra steps to reduce fishery impacts when Chinook runs are low.
“We reiterate our concern about the severely depressed status of the SRKW population,” states the letter from Barry Thom, regional administrator for NMFS. “We are particularly concerned about years with critically low Chinook salmon abundance throughout the whales’ geographic range because of the potential effects to the whales’ energetics, health, reproduction, and survival.
“Intuitively,” he added, “at some low Chinook abundance level, the prey available to the whales will not be sufficient to forage successfully leading to adverse effects (such as reduced body condition and poor reproductive success).”
The guidance letter calls for increased conservation measures, such as time and area restrictions, to reduce fishing pressure on the Chinook when the North of Falcon abundance is equal to or less than the average of the seven lowest years of abundance. Those years are 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2007.
NMFS officials must approve any fishing plans adopted by state and tribal managers through the North of Falcon process.
At the annual North of Falcon kickoff meeting last week, officials with the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife reported that their forecasts of this year’s Chinook returns will be slightly lower than last year’s forecasts for Puget Sound stocks and somewhat higher for the Columbia River. A video of the presentation is available on the WDFW North of Falcon website.
This week, fisheries managers are meeting with the Pacific Fishery Management Council in Sonoma County, Calif. A major agenda item is to discuss numerical targets for salmon fishing, with three options scheduled for approval on Monday.
While fishing certainly can affect the abundance of salmon throughout the range of the southern resident killer whales, it is important to keep in mind the entire salmon life cycle, which can be affected by habitat in streams, Puget Sound and the ocean; weather and climate conditions; competition from other species; and the effects of disease on the entire food web.